Pessimism is a spent force of short covering focus on three opportunities – Securities Sohu-pullip

Pessimism is a spent force of short covering focus on three opportunities – Sohu securities at the beginning of this year, the magnitude and speed of adjustment of A shares of the index are significantly deviated from the normal track, with the global capital market gradually warmer, February is expected to usher in warmer market. Stand in the angle of active funds, this round of adjustment beyond the norm, and a greater degree of capital stock structure is distorted, the currently active stock funds or private equity fund financial accounts has formed a dominant pattern, these are the related stock movements with pre warning line and the liquidation line of funds, with the adjustment increase, easy to form a negative feedback effect price adjustment — stop emission — the stock price decline accelerated. However, based on the support of enterprise growth value, as the stock price falls too short in the short run, when the stock price deviates from the long term average (250 days), the short supply power is also very strong. Empirically, the downward deviation is more than 25%, and the continuous trading day is over 30 days. The typical left side trading characteristics will appear, and the market operation characteristics in January have met this feature. In the absence of further systemic risk hit against the background, the probability of continuing a sharp downward deviation in the short term is very low, the market will probably usher in a round of shock repair market. At present, the market confidence is relatively weak, but last Wednesday, the low point of 2638 points, these 3 days did not again rapid breakdown, in the trend of a downward trend in the background, can repeatedly support at this position, has shown that the negative feedback effect began weakening. In fact, the current index position has also been in the bottom of the last round of index finishing platform area, there is strong support technology. Specifically, the Shanghai index is 2250, the history of the bottom support area 2500, the SSE 50 index is 1800 – 2100 (in August last year, the index has been the first to test this area), technology of morphological characteristics of the CSI 500 index is more obvious, just back to history (2007 – 2013) finishing platform position. These indexes represent the traditional industries, and the index returns to the starting point. The other side proves that the market is not dominated by traditional industries. The current most difficult traditional industries (large area losses), began to usher in the supply side structural reform, this round of reform will determine the growth prospects of traditional industries. While the small and medium innovation index, which represents the theme of entrepreneurship and innovation, is at a low position adjusted last August. Such a "double bottom" pattern is synchronized with the mainstream index of European and American stock markets, which is in line with the global new industry trend. Therefore, with the bottoming out of traditional industries, it will gradually start a new round of market, and drive by traditional industries and new industries, which is undoubtedly a systematic rise. The bottom building process is more complex, longer, and is in line with the market rules. On the whole, Manniu appears as feature center move slowly in regional shocks. Market pessimism gradually weakened, it will enter the short period of compensation. Short back can focus on three types of opportunities: first, the growth theme, which is the focus of various types of funds before the object, because the current round of adjustment speed is too fast, low back compensation hedge or low cost of the strongest power. New energy vehicles, big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, etc., is still the focus, of which, hundreds of billions of market capitalization of leading shares.

悲观情绪呈强弩之末 空头回补关注三类机会-搜狐证券   新年伊始,A股各大指数的调整幅度和速度都明显偏离正常轨道,随着全球资本市场逐步回暖,2月有望迎来回暖行情。  站在活跃资金角度,本轮调整力度超出常态,较大程度与存量资金结构扭曲有关,目前活跃的存量资金已形成私募或专户理财基金主导的格局,这些都是带有预 相关公司股票走势 警线和清盘线的机构资金,随着调整加剧,容易形成股价调整――止损盘涌出――股价加速下跌的负反馈效应。不过,基于企业成长价值的支撑,随着股价短期过快下跌,当股价大幅向下偏离长期均线(250日)时,空头回补动力也非常强烈。经验上看,通常是向下偏离幅度超过25%,持续交易日超30天,就会出现典型的左侧交易特征,1月市场运行特征已符合这一特征。在没有进一步的系统性风险打击的背景下,短期内要继续大幅向下偏离的几率很低,后市大概率会迎来一轮震荡修复行情。  目前市场信心比较弱,但上周三所探出的低点2638点,这3天并没有再度快速击穿,在趋势强烈向下的背景下,能够在这个位置反复获得支撑,已表明上述负反馈效应开始弱化。实际上,当前指数位置也已处于上一轮指数底部整理平台区域,技术上有较强支撑。具体而言,上证指数的历史底部支撑区域是2250―2500点,上证50指数则为1800―2100点(去年8月该指数已率先回试此区域),中证500指数的技术形态特征更明显,刚好回撤至历史整理平台(2007年―2013年)位置。这些指数代表传统产业,指数回归起点,从另一侧面佐证这一轮行情不是由传统产业主导的。当前最困难的传统产业(大面积亏损),开始迎来供给侧结构性改革,这一轮改革将决定传统产业成长预期。而代表创业创新主题的中小创指数,则处于去年8月调整的低点位置,这样的“双底”格局,与欧美股市主流指数同步,这也符合全球新产业潮流。因此,伴随传统产业的触底回升,就会逐步启动新一轮行情,并由传统产业、新产业双轮驱动,这无疑是一个系统性上涨。底部构筑过程更为复杂一些,时间更长一些,都是符合市场规律的。整体上,呈现为区域震荡中重心缓缓上移的慢牛特征。  市场悲观情绪逐步减弱,就会进入空头回补期。空头回补可关注三类机会:首先是成长主题,这是此前各类资金重点持仓的对象,因本轮调整速度过快,低位回补对冲或摊低成本的动力最强。新能源汽车、大数据、人工智能、虚拟现实等依然是重点,其中,千亿市值龙头股如七喜控股、紫光股份、万达院线等的稳定性会直接影响成长主题的投资情绪;第二类是高股息率的蓝筹股,防守策略或增量长线资金会持续关注这类品种,能够保持稳定经营、股息率进入5%以上的品种,可以作为战略性投资资源;第三类是强周期股,虽然短期波动很大,但基于股价已长期深幅调整,随着供给侧改革的快速推进,这批强周期品种会迎来大量兼并重组的机会,部分领域也会出现成长拐点,如钛白粉、维生素产品涨价就是一个重要信号。  总体上讲,当前股市趋势似乎正在重演2008年金融危机时的情形,但出现的概率并不大。当时是传统产业全面见顶而新产业或新经济未现眉目,现在则是新产业或新经济已形成趋势,包括供给侧改革、汇率波动,其主动性、可控性都很强,虽然有阵痛,经济整体复苏趋势希望颇大,现阶段的投资情绪已过度悲观。相关的主题文章: