Guotai Junan Joe always wears Kang waiting for more favorable attack opportunity 小宋当家主题曲

Guotai Junan Joe always wear Kang: wait for a more favorable time to attack Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors are in use on the performance of the worries dominated the market risk appetite. During the Spring Festival, the global market open hedging model, resorted to negative interest rates after the Nikkei 225 index plunged 11% in a week, Deutsche Bank CoCo for debt repayment problems dragged European stock market, VIX index rose, gold prices soared, the ten year bond yields fell sharply, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates next year is expected to cut interest rates to replace. The essence of the global risk assets fell is uncontrolled loose after the subprime crisis correction of central banks, before another round of quantitative easing to reduce the risk-free interest rate increase risk appetite, when valuations spiral after investors found that the performance has not fulfilled, and cockroach in the kitchen are constantly climbing out. Before the market worried about the RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the Hong Kong dollar index with the callback and the offshore RMB exchange rate rebound will be eased, but we believe that A stock investors worried about the performance of the heating up again. The risk-free interest rate expected decline will continue, but the short-term effect is limited. Incremental funding admission depends on two factors: 1) the level of interest rates down so that the stock to attract in the categories of asset allocation; 2) increased risk appetite. Only the first item is happening at present. Since the end of last year China risk-free interest rate showed a downward trend, the euro zone to increase the release of loose signal, Japan resorted to negative interest rates, the interest rate is expected to gradually transformed into the expected rate cut. The reason of risk assets is negative but risk-free interest rate decline is the result of downside risk appetite, global investors on the molecular end the growth of enterprise performance from 2015 to lose confidence that at the beginning of 2016 caused a reassessment of equity risk premium, and the risk-free interest rates down space is limited so that investors in the stock market price discount rate rose. Macro Prudential as core = regression of big central bank model. An interview with Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people’s Bank of China, issued by Caixin on February 13th. The first concerns the market in three aspects, the RMB exchange rate reform path and the previous reform logic; second, whether to change the direction of monetary policy; third, changes of the new financial regulatory framework model. According to the recent dynamic regulation, we believe that: first, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations from the system choice, from the dollar to a basket of alive, do not rule out the interim international negotiations; second, monetary policy will continue to loose, the level of market interest rates may be even faster fall; third, the "macroprudential" as the core means that the new financial regulatory framework under the reform, the central macro-control mode is returning to the risk supervision will be more detailed, it will constitute a constraint on the A shares risk preference. Waiting for more favorable timing of attack, industry allocation preferred high dividend yield value of blue chip. A shares still need to wait for a better opportunity to attack. Industry configuration: 1) high dividend yield high dividends and at the bottom of the historical valuation of banks, utilities (electricity); 2) the global risk aversion increased, Huang Jin prices rebound, benefiting from the rebound in the price of gold nonferrous metals (Huang Jin), retail trade in gold plate; 3) the state of the Spring Festival

国泰君安乔永远戴康:等待更有利的进攻时机 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   对业绩的担忧主导市场风险偏好下降。春节期间全球市场开启避险模式,祭出负利率后的日经225指数一周内暴跌11%,德意志银行因CoCo债券偿付问题拖累欧洲股市大跌,VIX指数攀升,黄金价格飙升,美国十年期国债收益率大幅下降,美联储未来一年加息预期已经被降息预期取代。全球风险资产大跌的本质是对次贷危机后各国央行无节制宽松的修正,之前一轮又一轮的量化宽松降低无风险利率提升风险偏好,当估值水平螺旋式上升后投资者发现业绩迟迟无法兑现,而厨房里的蟑螂却在不断地爬出。之前市场担心的人民币乃至港币汇率波动随着美元指数回调和人民币离岸汇率回升会有所缓解,但我们认为A股投资者对业绩的担忧将再次升温。   无风险利率超预期下降仍将继续但短期作用有限。增量资金入场取决于两个因素:1)利率水平下行令股票在大类资产配置中吸引;2)风险偏好上升。当前仅第一项正在发生。去年底以来中国无风险利率呈下行趋势,欧元区释放加大宽松信号,日本祭出负利率,美国加息预期逐渐转化为降息预期。风险资产反而负面反应的缘由在于:无风险利率下降是风险偏好下行的结果,全球投资者对分子端企业业绩增长的信心从2015年的怀疑到2016年初的丧失导致重估股票风险溢价,而无风险利率下行空间越来越有限使得投资者心目中的股票市场定价贴现率反而上升。   “宏观审慎”为核心=大央行模式回归。2月13日财新网发布中国人民银行行长周小川的专访。市场关注问题在三个方面,第一,人民币汇改路径和既往改革逻辑;第二,货币政策方向是否改变;第三,新金融监管框架模式变迁。结合近期调控动态,我们认为:第一,人民币汇率波动源于制度选择,从紧盯美元到一篮子活剥,中期不排除国际协商的可能;第二,货币政策将继续宽松,市场利率水平甚至可能更快回落;第三,“宏观审慎”为核心意味着新金融监管框架改革下,宏观调控的大央行模式正在回归,对风险监管将更加细致具体,这将对A股风险偏好构成制约。   等待更有利的进攻时机,行业配置优选高股息率价值蓝筹。A股仍需等待更有利的进攻时机。行业配置:1)高股息率高分红且处于历史估值底部的银行、公用事业(电力);2)全球避险情绪增强,黄金价格企稳回升,受益于金价反弹的有色金属(黄金)、商贸零售中的金饰板块;3)春节前国务院对煤炭钢铁最先发布去产能指导意见,继续关注供给侧改革率先破局的煤炭、钢铁。主题投资注重催化剂和业绩的确定性,推荐十三五规划之农业工业化主题(农业信息化 农业机械化 农业升级 基础化工转型)和春节期间需求旺盛的90后消费主题(电竞 动漫 影视娱乐)。(来源:国泰君安证券研究) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: