The surface of the water investors need to life is the heart of the sea to fight a protracted war in 广州航海学院分数线

The surface of the water: investors need to "life is the heart of the sea" to fight a protracted war in the year of the monkey monkey A shares is Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance financial speed Kanpan client: the most profitable investors in A shares plummeted not patent. The global market with hot. The most extreme is the dollar and crude oil. The dollar plunged, crude oil is soaring, the dollar is in a continuous rise in more than a year, the dollar index rose to 80 from less than about 100, the Fed added after a breath suddenly died down, it is all, $two days plummeted to around 96, huge amount, shocked the world. "Who had water paper topics home do not eat dumplings" had suggested that the dollar is likely to go flat, the continued appreciation of the power weakened, because the U.S. economic data at home and did not expect better interest rates the Fed’s forecast also suddenly fell sharply, the rate hike in March is almost zero, and the weakening dollar initiative Chinese will reduce the continued depreciation of the RMB pressure, although this is a passive form, but this kind of change to a certain extent, only to be sensed, not explained, after all, at this time, there are three telephone conversations between China and the United States, the United States Secretary of the Treasury and the communication is also in the finance office Liu He and Vice Premier Wang continuous, to reach an agreement what we do not know, but one thing is for sure, Chinese is not willing to sharp depreciation of the RMB, the RMB does not exist such Based China, not to mention such a currency war to enhance competitiveness, while the Americans apparently for the depreciation of the RMB is also worried, or conversely, worried about the devaluation of RMB passively to push up the dollar, causing global currency depreciation, and later the Americans in the high hills, the dollar is not good is the tower alone, and aloof. The collapse of the US dollar led directly to crude oil prices, not only crude oil, all commodities are denominated in dollars, the dollar theory and commodity futures price is opposite, but not necessarily, a large part of the reason is the volatility of oil prices is not large, but very large, fell below 30 the dollar’s rebound, even after frequent amplitude of about 8-9% and pulled up, just ten trading days, the price of oil from a minimum of $27.56 was pulled up to $34.82, and was back to $29.57, then to $32.75, it is awfully, of which there are jumping up and down, OPEC cut news, also Russian production of news, more Iran and OPEC dialogue news, final oil production can cut, cut, and can play much role, who do not know, beauty Shale oil development of people to a certain extent the oil leakage hit the bottom line, and oversupply is the essential oil price, and the root seems to Chinese decline in demand, the market back speculation "tiger Chinese theory" oil prices of $147 with Kate really rise directly to a high position. The linkage between us dollar, crude oil and US shares is very clear. The dollar rises, crude oil falls, US shares fall, in turn, the dollar falls, crude oil goes up, and US stocks rise. The truth is the same. The trend behind the US economy is really strong, then the Fed will add

水皮:投资者需“地命海心”打持久战 猴年A股是猴市 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   暴涨暴跌不是A股的专利。   全球市场同此炎热。   比较极端的是美元和原油。   美元是暴跌,原油是暴涨,美元是在连续上涨了一年多之后,美元指数从80不到涨到100左右之后,美联储加了一次息之后突然偃旗息鼓之后,反正是种种之后,美元两天时间暴跌到96左右,量幅巨大,全球震惊。此前水皮杂谈“谁家过年不吃顿饺子”中曾经提示,美元有可能走平,持续升值的动力在减弱,因为美国国内的经济数据并没有预计的好,美联储的加息预测亦突然大幅下降,三月加息的可能性几乎为零,而美元的主动走弱会减轻中国人民币持续贬值的压力,尽管这是被动形成的,但是这种变化一定程度上只可意会,不可言传,毕竟在这段时间,中美之间的电话对话就有三次,美国财政部长亦和中财办刘鹤以及国务院副总理汪洋连续的沟通,达成什么样的协定我们并不清楚,但是,有一点可以确定,中国人并不愿意人民币大幅贬值,人民币也的确不存在这样的基础,中国更不可能指望如此打货币战争争取提升竞争力,而美国人显然对于人民币的贬值也有担心,或者反过来讲,担心人民币的贬值被动地推升美元,导致全球货币竞相贬值,到头来又把美国人撂在高高的山岗上,美元算不好就是独上高楼,而高处不胜寒。美元暴跌直接导致原油的暴涨,不光原油,所有大宗商品期货都是以美元计价的,美元走势理论上与大宗商品期货价格是相反的,但是也不尽然,很大一部分原因是油价的波动幅度不是一般的大,而是非常的大,在跌破30美元的反弹中,甚至盘中频频出现8-9%左右的振幅和拉升,短短十个交易日内,油价从最低27.56美元被拉升到34.82美元,又被打回29.57美元,之后又被拉回32.75美元,真的是上蹿下跳,不亦乐乎,这其中有欧佩克减产的消息,也有俄罗斯减产的消息,更有伊朗和欧佩克对话的消息,最终原油产量能否削减,削减多少,又能起多少作用,谁也不知道,美国人开发的页岩油一定程度上砸漏了油价的底线,供过于求才是油价回归的本质,而根子又似乎在中国的需求下降,遥想当年市场狂炒“中国饿虎论”油价扶摇直上147美元真有隔世之感。   美元、原油和美股的联动关系是十分鲜明的,美元涨,原油跌,美股跌,反过来,美元跌,原油涨,美股涨,道理其实一样,背后是美国经济的走势,真的强,那么美联储必加息,加息则加大美股下行的压力,如果弱,则美联储不敢加息,美元回流动力小,美元跌,油价涨,美股亦跟涨,特别是道指成份股指数中靠油吃饭的大蓝筹权重大,这一点和上证指数被“两桶油”左右是一个道理。   再来看,美股和A股的关系,两者是一种谁强就跟谁的关系,美股强,A股跟着走,A股强,美股跟着走,特别是暴涨暴跌时分,相互影响已经形成规律,现在的A股无疑是熊市,美股也是熊市,那么比的就不是谁强而是谁更弱,从调整的高度看,美股更危险,从调整的走势看,A股更危险。   A股的危险一是来自“去库存、去产能、去杠杆”的“三去”,实际上就是紧缩。去库存主要针对房地产,去产能主要针对钢铁和煤矿,那么去杠杆又主要针对谁呢?当然是针对影子银行。什么叫影子银行?影子银行实际上指的是除传统银行体系外的所有金融活动或者贷款之外的任何金融产品,在过去的几年中,影子银行的杠杆不断在银行、保险、证券、信托、地产、政府债这些领域中转来转去,最终是转到一般老百姓或者投资者头上,股灾是最典型的,消灭的就是中产阶级,也只有中产阶级可以消灭。A股的危险二是来自于扩大直接融资比例的诉求,尤其是IPO,特别是注册制,以扩大上市规模,缓解企业融资难,激发大众创业的热情来对冲紧缩的风险,这与其是一种市场行为不如说是一种政策取向,但是现实就是这样,中国经济本质上是一种政策经济,政策就是一种权宜之计,投资者必须“地命海心”,打持久战。   马上就是春节了,没有交易就没有收获,当然也没有闹心,无论套牢或空仓都开开心心,轻轻松松过了年再说,中国春节停市,估计外围或许就清静点,2016年注定是不平凡的一年,也是危机与机遇并存的一年,“惟其艰难,才更显勇毅,惟其笃行,才弥足珍贵”。   与君共勉。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: