44 figure interpretation of China’s property market risk mycoolboy

The 44 picture China interpretation of market risk the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping Yang Weixiao, the current real estate economy is expected to still have Chinese medium growth and urbanization there is still some space fundamentals such as favorable factors, if well managed, still turnaround. Measures should be taken to avoid rising housing prices from the fundamentals of the bubble trend: the legal form of a clear housing oriented housing system design, the establishment of a long-term mechanism to curb speculative investment demand. If the property market regulation is still a major turning point: 1, what has created a second tier cities in China prices rise or fall unbeaten Myth: urbanization, income and monetary super. Over the past decades, housing prices continued to rise, some fundamentals for urbanization, income data interpretation (housing demand, commodity property), the other part can be used to explain the super currency (speculative demand, financial property). Due to the speed of China’s urbanization, the growth rate of the income of residents and the degree of monetary excess (M2-GDP) more than the United States, Japan and other major economies, creating a Chinese house prices rose crown. 2014-2016 super currency prices rose far more than GDP and residents income. 2, the absolute price: China’s capital, the world’s largest, the world’s top twelve cities in China accounted for the high prices of seats in the top four. In the past, China is a high price income ratio, after 2014-2016 years of this wave of rising, and now is absolutely high prices, but China is a developing country. The world’s highest prices in the city (central urban housing prices), China ranked first in Hongkong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and other points in the, 8, and 11 place. 3, house price income ratio: a second line is high, the three or four line is reasonable. The latest global price earnings ratio of the ten largest cities, the north of Guangzhou Shenzhen accounted for four seats. Huge difference ratio Chinese a two-wire and three or four wire real income may reflect two factors: one is the income gap effect, high income groups to a second tier city; two is the public resources premium, such as hospitals and schools to a second tier city agglomeration. China’s current real estate market capitalization accounted for 411% of the proportion of GDP, higher than the global average of 260%. 4, inventory: to the pressure is relatively large three or four lines of small cities. To inventory pressure is relatively large in the city are mostly small and medium city, and more concentrated in the Midwest, northeast and other economically underdeveloped areas, the process of migration and the three or four line of the city over investment, population and resources to a second tier city. From the United States, Japan and other international experience, the real estate population continues to migrate to the metropolitan area of the times, rural, three or four line cities, such as the pressure of the net outflow of population. Therefore, a second line is mainly the high price risk, the three or four line is mainly inventory risk. 5, the rental rate of return: the overall low. At present, China’s major cities in the static rental rate of return of 2.6%, the first tier cities in about 2%, less than the two or three line city. According to the international static rental rate of return of 4%-6%, China is far below the international level. China’s real estate is not a simple function of residence, but a bundle of resources with a comprehensive value of the body, such as household registration, School District, hospital, etc.. Chinese people’s right相关的主题文章: